United States: economic indicators

1. Federal budget deficit (+) or surplus (-), monthly: down $139.9 bn to $26.9 bn in September 2026, a move of 19% of its five-year range.
2. Industrial production index: up 0.7% to 104.0 in September 2026, a move of 13% of its five-year range.
3. Delinquency rate on all loans, all banks: down 0.03 pp to 1.42% in Q2 2026, a move of 9% of its five-year range.
4. 2-year Treasury yield (constant maturity): up 0.43 pp to 4.65% in September 2026, a move of 9% of its five-year range.
5. 10-year Treasury yield (constant maturity): up 0.31 pp to 4.99% in September 2026, a move of 9% of its five-year range.

The Federal Reserve sets a target range for the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. The series here is the monthly average of the effective rate the New York Fed calculates from those trades each day, so it moves inside the target range rather than at its edges.

Treasury yields at constant maturities come from the Federal Reserve's H.15 release. The three-month bill follows the policy rate closely, the two-year note reflects where markets expect policy over the next two years, and the ten-year note adds longer-run inflation and term risk. The broad dollar index tracks the dollar against the currencies of major trading partners.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the consumer price index for all urban consumers each month, seasonally adjusted and not. The twelve-month rate uses the unadjusted index, as the BLS headline does. The Federal Reserve defines its 2% goal on a different measure, PCE inflation, which is not shown until its publisher confirms reuse terms.

Bank credit and commercial and industrial loans come from the Federal Reserve's H.8 release on commercial bank balance sheets, and consumer credit from its G.19 release. Delinquency and charge-off rates on all loans show how much of that lending is going unpaid, and link to the loan quality rankings of individual banks.

Deposits at all commercial banks come from the H.8 release and M2 from the H.6 money stock release. Deposits are the main funding source of the banks profiled on this site; the uninsured share of each bank's deposits is ranked separately.

Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate come from the BLS monthly employment report, and industrial production from the Federal Reserve's G.17 release. Real GDP is held back until its publisher, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirms reuse terms.

Total public debt, debt held by the public and the monthly budget result come from the Treasury's Fiscal Data service. Debt held by the public leaves out what one part of the government owes another, such as the trust funds.