10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread, United States
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread in the United States was 0.34 pp in , down 0.12 pp from and down 0.21 pp from a year earlier. Over the latest 12 readings it moved between 0.34 pp and 0.67 pp. The next reading is for October 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15; history from .
Key takeaways
- The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread at 0.34 pp in beats 30% of readings since (Federal Reserve Board).
- Against a ten-year average of 0.35 pp, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is below that norm by 0.01 pp (Federal Reserve Board).
- On the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread, the United States ranks 4th highest of 4 countries (national publishers).
What this indicator is and why it matters
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is the difference between the monthly average yields on 10-year and 2-year US government notes, both from the Federal Reserve's H.15 release. EconoMonitor calculates it from the two published series; it is measured in percentage points, and a negative value means the curve is inverted.
It is the best-known summary of the shape of the yield curve. Normally investors earn more for lending for ten years than for two, so the spread is positive. When markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the 2-year yield falls below the policy rate and can drop under the 10-year yield, turning the spread negative. Inversions have come before most US recessions of recent decades, which is why the series is watched so closely. For banks, which borrow short and lend long, a narrow or negative spread squeezes the margin between deposit costs and loan yields.
Read it with care. The lag between an inversion and a downturn has varied from months to more than two years, and the curve can return to positive just as conditions weaken. The spread from July 2022 to 2024 stayed negative for an unusually long time. Monthly averages also hide sharp intramonth swings.
Where it sits in history
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is at its lowest since , when it stood at 0.31 pp. Within ten years, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread beats 47% of readings; earlier years held the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread higher.
| Window | Latest is higher than | Average | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since January 2006 | 30% of readings | 0.98 pp | 2.83 pp | -0.93 pp |
| Last ten years | 47% of readings | 0.35 pp | 1.48 pp | -0.93 pp |
| Last five years | 60% of readings | 0.07 pp | 1.19 pp | -0.93 pp |
- 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread 0.3
Recent readings
Last five years
- 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread 0.3
Latest readings
| Period | Value | Change from previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.34 pp | -0.12 pp | |
| 0.46 pp | +0.08 pp | |
| 0.38 pp | +0.02 pp | |
| 0.36 pp | -0.12 pp | |
| 0.48 pp | -0.04 pp | |
| 0.52 pp | -0.02 pp | |
| 0.54 pp | -0.12 pp | |
| 0.66 pp | -0.01 pp | |
| 0.67 pp | +0.03 pp | |
| 0.64 pp | +0.10 pp | |
| 0.54 pp | +0.00 pp | |
| 0.54 pp | -0.01 pp | |
| 0.55 pp | -0.01 pp |
Annual averages
By calendar-year average, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread peaked in (2.51 pp) and bottomed in (-0.62 pp). 2026 to date: 0.49 pp, after 0.48 pp in 2025.
| Year | Average | Low | High | Readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (part year) | 0.49 pp | 0.34 pp | 0.67 pp | 9 |
| 2025 | 0.48 pp | 0.24 pp | 0.64 pp | 12 |
| 2024 | -0.16 pp | -0.43 pp | 0.16 pp | 12 |
| 2023 | -0.62 pp | -0.93 pp | -0.27 pp | 12 |
| 2022 | -0.03 pp | -0.67 pp | 0.78 pp | 12 |
| 2021 | 1.18 pp | 0.79 pp | 1.48 pp | 12 |
| 2020 | 0.50 pp | 0.17 pp | 0.79 pp | 12 |
| 2019 | 0.17 pp | 0.05 pp | 0.26 pp | 12 |
| 2018 | 0.38 pp | 0.15 pp | 0.68 pp | 12 |
| 2017 | 0.93 pp | 0.56 pp | 1.22 pp | 12 |
| 2016 | 1.01 pp | 0.82 pp | 1.29 pp | 12 |
| 2015 | 1.45 pp | 1.26 pp | 1.67 pp | 12 |
| 2014 | 2.08 pp | 1.57 pp | 2.47 pp | 12 |
| 2013 | 2.04 pp | 1.53 pp | 2.56 pp | 12 |
| 2012 | 1.53 pp | 1.28 pp | 1.83 pp | 12 |
| 2011 | 2.33 pp | 1.72 pp | 2.81 pp | 12 |
| 2010 | 2.51 pp | 2.16 pp | 2.83 pp | 12 |
| 2009 | 2.30 pp | 1.71 pp | 2.72 pp | 12 |
| 2008 | 1.66 pp | 1.26 pp | 2.32 pp | 12 |
| 2007 | 0.27 pp | -0.13 pp | 0.98 pp | 12 |
| 2006 | -0.02 pp | -0.14 pp | 0.14 pp | 12 |
Same measure in other countries
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread in the United States is above 0 of the other 3 comparable readings. Four countries compared.
| Country | Series | Latest | Period | Change on a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread | 0.34 pp | -0.21 pp | |
| Canada | Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread | 0.62 pp | September 2026 | -0.10 pp |
| Australia | Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread | 0.36 pp | September 2026 | -0.54 pp |
| United Kingdom | 10-year minus 5-year gilt yield spread | 0.45 pp | September 2026 | -0.21 pp |
Link to US banks
When the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread moves, deposit and loan rates follow, and with them bank margins. Median net interest margin, 500 US banks we cover: 3.64% at Q2 2026; the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread: 0.34 pp in . Net interest margin ranking.
How is it measured?
Difference between the monthly average 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Negative = inverted curve. Formula: us_treasury_10y - us_treasury_2y.
Federal Reserve Board publishes the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread monthly in H.15, in percentage points. Code: RIFLGFCY10_N.M (10-year Treasury yield (constant maturity)), RIFLGFCY02_N.M (2-year Treasury yield (constant maturity)); the spread is derived by EconoMonitor. Monthly basis: each month shows the average of the daily values in that month. Method for the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread.
Questions
How high is the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread in the United States now?
0.34 pp in (Federal Reserve Board), down 0.21 pp on a year earlier.
Is the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread high by historical standards?
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread beats 30% of readings since ; its peak was 2.83 pp (), its low -0.93 pp ().
When is the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread updated?
Monthly, in H.15. Next reading: October 2026.
Where can I check the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread at the source?
Federal Reserve Board data, code RIFLGFCY10_N.M (10-year Treasury yield (constant maturity)), RIFLGFCY02_N.M (2-year Treasury yield (constant maturity)); the spread is derived by EconoMonitor.