Industrial production index, United States

The industrial production index measures the real output of US factories, mines and electric and gas utilities. The Federal Reserve Board publishes it monthly in its G.17 release; the series here is the seasonally adjusted total index, with 2017 set to 100.

Manufacturing makes up about three quarters of the index, so it is the main monthly gauge of the goods-producing side of the economy. It arrives quickly, around the middle of the following month, and turns at business-cycle peaks and troughs, which makes it one of the indicators economists use to date recessions. The Federal Reserve publishes capacity utilization alongside it, a measure of how much spare room factories have before inflation pressure builds.

Several things move it besides demand. Utility output swings with the weather, so a hot summer or a mild winter can push the total up or down for reasons unrelated to the economy. Strikes, hurricanes and plant retooling, especially in the auto industry, create one-off dips. The index is revised in later months and at an annual benchmark, sometimes by enough to change the story of a recent quarter. It also leaves out services, the largest part of the US economy.

The industrial production index is at its highest since December 2018, when it stood at 104.1. Within ten years, the industrial production index beats 96% of readings.

Industrial production, total index, seasonally adjusted.

Federal Reserve Board publishes the industrial production index monthly in G.17, in index (2017 = 100) and is seasonally adjusted. Code: IP.B50001.S. Method for the industrial production index.