Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread, Australia

The Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread is the difference between the monthly average interpolated yields on ten-year and two-year Commonwealth bonds, both from RBA table F2.1. EconoMonitor calculates it from the two published series, so it starts in September 2013 when both are available.

The spread describes the slope of the Australian yield curve. A positive spread means investors are paid more for lending for longer, the normal state; a negative spread means markets expect the RBA to cut the cash rate. For Australian banks, the slope matters less than in some countries because most home loans are variable-rate and reprice with the cash rate, but it still shapes the cost of fixed-rate lending and the return on banks' bond holdings.

The two ends of the spread answer to different forces. The ten-year yield is strongly influenced by US Treasury yields while the two-year yield follows the RBA, so the spread mixes global long-term rates with local policy expectations; a change can come from either end. And the series here is short by the standards of US and Canadian data, covering just over a decade, so it includes only a few full rate cycles.

The Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread is at its lowest since June 2026, when it stood at 0.33 pp. Within ten years, the Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread beats 20% of readings.

Difference between the monthly average 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Formula: au_agb_10y - au_agb_2y.

RBA publishes the Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread monthly in RBA table F2.1, in percentage points. Code: FCMYGBAG10 (Australian Government 10-year bond yield), FCMYGBAG2 (Australian Government 2-year bond yield); the spread is derived by EconoMonitor. Monthly basis: each month shows the average of the daily values in that month. Method for the Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread.