Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread, Canada
The Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread in Canada was 0.62 pp in , down 0.10 pp from and down 0.10 pp from a year earlier. Over the latest 12 readings it moved between 0.61 pp and 0.84 pp. The next reading is for October 2026. Source: Bank of Canada, Valet; history from .
Key takeaways
- The Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread at 0.62 pp in beats 46% of readings since (Bank of Canada).
- Against a ten-year average of 0.21 pp, the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread is above that norm by 0.40 pp (Bank of Canada).
- On the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread, Canada ranks 1st highest of 4 countries (national publishers).
What this indicator is and why it matters
The Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread is the difference between the monthly average yields on the ten-year and two-year benchmark bonds, both published by the Bank of Canada. EconoMonitor calculates it from the two series; a negative value means short-term yields are above long-term yields, an inverted curve.
The spread summarizes what bond markets expect from the Bank of Canada. When investors expect rate cuts ahead, two-year yields fall below ten-year yields less than usual or not at all, and the spread narrows or turns negative. Canadian banks fund themselves with deposits and short-term borrowing and lend at longer terms, so a flat or inverted curve compresses the margin they earn, while a steep curve widens it.
Interpret it carefully. The Canadian curve stayed inverted from mid-2022 into 2024 as the Bank raised rates quickly, a period when markets priced cuts that took time to arrive. Because Canadian ten-year yields follow US Treasuries closely, the long end can move for reasons outside Canada, so the Canadian spread mixes domestic rate expectations with global bond trends. Monthly averages also hide intramonth swings around rate decisions.
Where it sits in history
The Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread is at its lowest since , when it stood at 0.61 pp. Within ten years, the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread beats 70% of readings; earlier years held the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread higher.
| Window | Latest is higher than | Average | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since January 2006 | 46% of readings | 0.63 pp | 2.21 pp | -1.23 pp |
| Last ten years | 70% of readings | 0.21 pp | 1.24 pp | -1.23 pp |
| Last five years | 70% of readings | 0.00 pp | 0.84 pp | -1.23 pp |
- Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread 0.6
Recent readings
Last five years
- Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread 0.6
Latest readings
| Period | Value | Change from previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 pp | -0.10 pp | |
| 0.72 pp | +0.01 pp | |
| 0.71 pp | +0.08 pp | |
| 0.63 pp | +0.02 pp | |
| 0.61 pp | -0.04 pp | |
| 0.65 pp | -0.02 pp | |
| 0.68 pp | -0.12 pp | |
| 0.80 pp | -0.04 pp | |
| 0.84 pp | +0.03 pp | |
| 0.81 pp | +0.08 pp | |
| 0.73 pp | +0.02 pp | |
| 0.71 pp | 0.00 pp | |
| 0.72 pp | -0.01 pp |
Annual averages
By calendar-year average, the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread peaked in (2.00 pp) and bottomed in (-0.91 pp). 2026 to date: 0.69 pp, after 0.63 pp in 2025.
| Year | Average | Low | High | Readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (part year) | 0.69 pp | 0.61 pp | 0.84 pp | 9 |
| 2025 | 0.63 pp | 0.36 pp | 0.81 pp | 12 |
| 2024 | -0.33 pp | -0.69 pp | 0.17 pp | 12 |
| 2023 | -0.91 pp | -1.23 pp | -0.71 pp | 12 |
| 2022 | -0.13 pp | -0.87 pp | 0.58 pp | 12 |
| 2021 | 0.88 pp | 0.47 pp | 1.24 pp | 12 |
| 2020 | 0.24 pp | -0.12 pp | 0.49 pp | 12 |
| 2019 | 0.00 pp | -0.18 pp | 0.14 pp | 12 |
| 2018 | 0.29 pp | 0.08 pp | 0.51 pp | 12 |
| 2017 | 0.69 pp | 0.34 pp | 0.95 pp | 12 |
| 2016 | 0.69 pp | 0.49 pp | 0.96 pp | 12 |
| 2015 | 0.97 pp | 0.77 pp | 1.17 pp | 12 |
| 2014 | 1.18 pp | 0.84 pp | 1.50 pp | 12 |
| 2013 | 1.15 pp | 0.76 pp | 1.57 pp | 12 |
| 2012 | 0.76 pp | 0.65 pp | 1.00 pp | 12 |
| 2011 | 1.41 pp | 1.10 pp | 1.58 pp | 12 |
| 2010 | 1.69 pp | 1.39 pp | 2.21 pp | 12 |
| 2009 | 2.00 pp | 1.67 pp | 2.18 pp | 12 |
| 2008 | 0.95 pp | 0.54 pp | 1.71 pp | 12 |
| 2007 | 0.09 pp | -0.05 pp | 0.32 pp | 12 |
| 2006 | 0.18 pp | 0.06 pp | 0.32 pp | 12 |
Same measure in other countries
The Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread in Canada is above 3 of the other 3 comparable readings. Four countries compared.
| Country | Series | Latest | Period | Change on a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread | 0.62 pp | -0.10 pp | |
| United States | 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread | 0.34 pp | September 2026 | -0.21 pp |
| Australia | Australian Government 10-year minus 2-year yield spread | 0.36 pp | September 2026 | -0.54 pp |
| United Kingdom | 10-year minus 5-year gilt yield spread | 0.45 pp | September 2026 | -0.21 pp |
How is it measured?
Difference between the monthly average 10-year and 2-year benchmark yields. Formula: ca_goc_10y - ca_goc_2y.
Bank of Canada publishes the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread monthly in Valet, in percentage points. Code: BD.CDN.10YR.DQ.YLD (Government of Canada 10-year benchmark bond yield), BD.CDN.2YR.DQ.YLD (Government of Canada 2-year benchmark bond yield); the spread is derived by EconoMonitor. Monthly basis: each month shows the average of the daily values in that month. Method for the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread.
Questions
How high is the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread in Canada now?
0.62 pp in (Bank of Canada), down 0.10 pp on a year earlier.
Is the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread high by historical standards?
The Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread beats 46% of readings since ; its peak was 2.21 pp (), its low -1.23 pp ().
When is the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread updated?
Monthly, in Valet. Next reading: October 2026.
Where can I check the Government of Canada 10-year minus 2-year yield spread at the source?
Bank of Canada data, code BD.CDN.10YR.DQ.YLD (Government of Canada 10-year benchmark bond yield), BD.CDN.2YR.DQ.YLD (Government of Canada 2-year benchmark bond yield); the spread is derived by EconoMonitor.