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Switzerland

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

Gross Domestic Product
(Millions of 2000 Swiss Francs, SA)
122314.79,121240.78,120937.15,121172.95,124891.97 124,891.97
Consumer Price Index
Total
(2005 = 100, NSA)
103.7,103.9,103.6,103.5,103.7 103.7
Unemployment Rate
(Percent, SA)
4.1,4.1,4.2,4.1,4.1 4.1
Industrial Production Index
Total
(Average 1995=100, NSA)
146.2,146.8,127.6,132.5,136.4 136.4
Exports of Goods and Services
(Millions of Swiss Francs, SA)
72499.78,67637.64,65487.7,67137.05,68894.93 68,894.93
Added value of the financial sector
Added value as a percentage of GDP
(Mil. CHF, NSA)
11.5,11.3,11.8,12.3,11.4 11.4
data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Switzerland Outlook

Following four quarters of negative growth, the Swiss economy emerged from recession in Q3 2009, posting 0.3% q/q growth on the back of robust private and public consumption, rebounding exports and resilient building investment. Due to the absence of major imbalances in the economy, Switzerland experienced a relatively mild recession compared to other industrialized countries. However, in Q3 2009 Swiss GDP was still 1.3% y/y below the previous year’s level. In the coming months, the external and financial sectors are likely to gain in importance, while private consumption and construction activity are set to become more subdued after largely stabilizing the economy in 2009. The current rebound in economic activity is not yet strong enough to eliminate substantial excess capacity, and as a result unemployment will pick up significantly. Fading stimulus packages, accelerating inflation and ongoing global structural problems will further limit...

Read the Q1 2010 Switzerland Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Daily Digest

News

Goldman Sachs Reduces Forecasts for Euro on Growth

Bloomberg  Candice Zachariahs Mar 11, 2010

News

Swiss Data Theft Hits 24,000 HSBC Clients

Wall Street Journal  Katharina Bart Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Swiss could benefit from Dutch pension model

Swiss Info  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Swiss Issues Real Estate Market 2010 Facts and trends

Credit Suisse  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Swiss financial sector must sink or swim

Swiss Info  Mar 9, 2010

News

Can an image campaign save Switzerland?

Swiss Info  Mar 9, 2010

Research

Switzerland: A Recovery, But Not a Major Upswing

Credit Suisse  Mar 8, 2010

News

German tax dodgers rush forward after Swiss CD affair

Deutsche Welle  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Swiss Issues Macro Monitor Q1 2010

Credit Suisse  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Switzerland: Q1 2010 Outlook

Roubini Global Economics  Jan 30, 2010

Analysis

Swiss Economy: Show of Strength in Q4 2009

Credit Suisse  Mar 2, 2010

News

Swiss Economic Growth Picks Up

Wall Street Journal  Martin Gelnar Mar 2, 2010

Analysis

Swiss Industry: End to Declining Inventories

Credit Suisse  Mar 1, 2010

News

Switzerland Rejects Automatic Tax-Data Exchange

Wall Street Journal  Katharina Bart Feb 25, 2010

Opinions

Greek crisis proves Switzerland is still a safe haven

Financial Times  Paul Betts Feb 15, 2010

News

Switzerland: Libya visa ban set a bad precedent

Swiss Info  Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

Global Markets February 16, 2010

TD Bank Securities  Millan Mulraine et al Feb 16, 2010

Analysis

Switzerland: Real turnover growth of 3.1%

Switzerland Federal Statistical Office FSO  Feb 9, 2010

Analysis

SNB - an information vacuum

Danske Bank  Kasper Kirkegaard and Niels Blomquist Feb 9, 2010

News

Swiss face hard choices over bank secrecy

Swissinfo  Feb 8, 2010

News

Germany Tackles Tax Evasion

Wall Street Journal  David Crawford, Deborah Ball and Vanessa Fuhrmans Feb 7, 2010

Blogs

What’s Next for Swiss Bank Secrecy?

DealBook  Peter J. Henning Feb 4, 2010

News

German Authorities Expect Tax Evaders to Fess Up

Spiegel online  Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

Swiss Tax Play Lures Business

Wall Street Journal  Deborah Ball and Cassell Bryan-low Feb 2, 2010

News

Berlin Risks Spat with Switzerland over Tax Evaders

Spiegel online  Jan 2, 2010

News

Merkel clashes with Switzerland over 'stolen' bank data

EU Observer  Valentina Pop Feb 2, 2010

News

Swiss Banks Achilles Heel Is Workers Selling Data

Bloomberg  Warren Giles Feb 2, 2010

News

SNB moves to calm Swiss franc appreciation

Financial Times  Peter Garnham Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

Switzerland: SVME Purchasing Managers' Index (Feb 1, 2010)

Credit Suisse  Feb 1, 2010

News

Swiss Bank Data Offered to Germany

Wall Street Journal  David Crawford and Deborah Ball Jan 31, 2010

News

Berlin set to renew Swiss data crackdown

Financial Times  Gerrit Wiesmann and Haig Simonian Jan 31, 2010

News

Germany Weighs Purchase of Swiss Bank Data by Informant

New York Times  Judy Dempsey Jan 31, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

Swiss Sector Landscape in Focus

Crédit Suisse Economic Research  Nicole Brändle Jan 25, 2010

News

Swiss aim to renegotiate tax pact with US to avoid referendum

Times  Christine Seib Jan 28, 2010

Blogs

European banks need €83bn

FT Alphaville  Neil Hume Jan 27, 2010

News

Key Findings of the Swiss Labour Force Survey 2009

Swiss Statistics  Jan 27, 2010

Opinions

Uncomfortable dilemma for Swiss on financial disclosure

Financial Times  Paul Betts Jan 26, 2010

News

Swiss in bid to save bank secrecy deal

Financial Times  Haig Simonian Jan 24, 2010

Analysis

Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecasts

Citigroup  Jeremy Hale Jan 8, 2010

Analysis

Shadow Banking, Capital Markets and Financial Stability

Bank of England  Speech by Paul Tucker Jan 21, 2010

Analysis

Credit Outlook for Major European Banks 2010: A Rocky Road Ahead

FitchRatings (free registration)  James Longsdon and Julia Peach et al Jan 21, 2010

Research

Bidding Behavior in the SNB‘s Repo Auctions

Swiss National Bank  Sébastien Kraenzlin and Martin Schlegel Jan 21, 2010

Analysis

Economic Outlook January 2010: The litmus test

Nordea  Helge J. Pedersen et al Jan 1, 2010

Research

Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc

Swiss National Bank  Jan 21, 2010

Research

Swiss issues economic policy

Credit Suisse  Jan 21, 2010

News

Swiss Banker Blows Whistle on Tax Evasion

New York Times  Lynnley Browning Jan 18, 2010

Analysis

Economic and Market Monitor - January / February 2010

Commerzbank AG  Jan 20, 2010

News

Swiss steer clear of proposed US bank levy

Swissinfo  Jan 19, 2010

News

Swiss Bank Will Stop Providing Liquidity to European Markets

Wall Street Journal  Nina Koeppen and Geoffrey T. Smith Jan 18, 2010

News

Economic Survey of Switzerland 2009

OECD  Jan 15, 2010

Analysis

Accounting and Financial Reporting: 2010 Global Outloo -: Bumps on The Road to Convergence

FitchRatings (free registration)  Olu Sonola and Dina Maher Jan 12, 2010

News

Switzerland Ready to Prevent 'Excessive Appreciation' of Franc

Wall Street Journal  Katie Martin and Martin Gelnar Jan 11, 2010

News

Unlawful UBS data deal adds to legal headache

Swiss Info  Jan 11, 2010

News

Hopes and Fears for Swiss Retailers

Credit Suisse  Jan 11, 2010

News

Swiss Industry in 2010: Not Much Breathing Space

Credit Suisse  Jan 11, 2010

Analysis

Financial Stability Board meets on the financial reform agenda

FSB Financial Stability Board  Jan 10, 2010

News

Italy Puts Swiss Haven From Taxes Under Siege

New York Times  John Tagliabue Jan 7, 2010

Research

Productivity and economic growth in Switzerland 1991-2005

Swiss National Bank  Barbara Rudolf and Mathias Zurlinden Sep 1, 2009

Analysis

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Roubini Global Economics  Elisa Parisi-Capone, Arnab Das, Jennifer Kapila and Natalia Gurushina Dec 6, 2009

Analysis

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

Roubini Global Economics  Christian Menegatti, Mikka Pineda, Arpitha Bykere, Mary Stokes, Kavitha Cherian, Bertrand Delgado and Mikko Forss Dec 6, 2009

Blogs

BarCap’s funding findings

FT Alphaville  Tracy Alloway Jan 5, 2010

News

European Shares Tack on Hefty Gains

Wall Street Journal  Kimberly Vlach Jan 4, 2010

Analysis

Global Economic Scenario January 2010

Schroders  Jan 4, 2010

Analysis

Outlook for Financial Markets January 2010

Swiss Life Asset Managment  Jan 4, 2010