Roubini Global Economics

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Real GDP Index - Gross Domestic Product
(corresponding period of previous year=100, NSA)

102.9,100.8,101.1,101.7,103.1 103.1

Consumer Price Index
Total
(corresponding period previous year=100, NSA)

103.4,103.1,103.3,103.5,103.6 103.6

Labor Force Survey
Total unemployment rate
(Percent, NSA)

6.6,6.7,8.3,7.9,8.1 8.1

Interest Rates
Central Bank - Reference Rate
(Percent, NSA)

3.5,3.5,3.5,3.5,3.5 3.5

Balance of Payments
Current Account - Total
(Millions US $, NSA)

-96,-84,-1469,-1899,-1515 -1,515

Foreign Trade
Total Exports
(Millions of Zloty, NSA)

28634.1,36575.3,35215.7,35499.8,30592.7 30,592.7

data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Poland Outlook

Poland stands out as the only EU economy to avert recession in 2009, growing 1.7%, according to the preliminary estimate. A combination of minimal macroeconomic imbalances, limited export dependence, a flexible exchange rate and timely fiscal and monetary stimulus helps explain the country’s outperformance. By far the biggest of the EU newcomer economies, Poland is set to continue outperforming regional peers in 2010. RGE expects the economy to grow 2.1%, supported by a recovery in export markets, renewed capital inflows (albeit still below pre-crisis levels), and the delayed impact of monetary easing. Despite the generally positive outlook, RGE expects annual GDP growth to stay below-trend through 2011.

Our outlook comes with certain qualifications. RGE envisions a protracted, U-shaped recovery in the eurozone, which is Poland’s main export market and its main source of capital inflows.

Read the Q1 2010 Poland Outlook.

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How to Avoid a Greek Tragedy in Europe

“Greece has long been an accident waiting to happen, with its heavy public debt and lack of competitiveness. A train wreck is imminent because the budget deficit is 3.5 times larger than previously claimed, and the markets doubt Greece’s resolve.”

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