RGE's Q1 2010 Eurozone Outlook
The exit from recession in the second half of 2009, which follows five quarters of negative growth, and the resumption in world growth, has led RGE and others to revise upward forecasts for eurozone growth. The flow of recent hard data, however, confirms the eurozone’s position as growth laggard among advanced economies. This assessment is further corroborated by Germany’s flash estimate of flat Q4 2009 growth, released by the statistical office in mid-January 2010. The disappointing flash estimate in Germany may well turn out to be an inventory-related statistical outlier, but survey indicators in the last quarter of 2009 point to a deceleration in activity over the turn of the year.
Along with net exports, this reliance on temporary factors—such as further positive growth contributions from inventory changes in Q4 2009 and the implementation of previously agreed fiscal stimulus packages—will continue to set the pace in 2010. In contrast to previous assumptions, however, market concerns about fiscal sustainability have materialized earlier than expected with respect to several eurozone member countries, in particular Greece, Ireland, and Spain, but also Portugal. This risk has emerged in the aftermath of negative sovereign ratings actions and as the ECB has started a gradual unwinding of longer-term liquidity operations. The implementation of fiscal austerity packages will constrain growth at a time when private sector balance sheets have not yet been fully restored, including in the financial sector.
Read the Q1 2010 Eurozone Outlook.
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Michael Moran
Mar 11, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Mar 11, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Paolo Manasse
Mar 9, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Simon Johnson
Mar 9, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Rob Parenteau
Mar 8, 2010
Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor
Simon Johnson
Mar 8, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Mar 7, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Mar 7, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Mar 5, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Satyajit Das
Mar 4, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Ivo Arnold
Mar 1, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Mar 1, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Feb 26, 2010
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Michael Moran
Feb 23, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Emre Deliveli
Feb 23, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Paolo Manasse
Feb 23, 2010
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic
Feb 22, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Walter Molano
Feb 17, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Yves Smith
Feb 17, 2010
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Elisa Parisi-Capone
Feb 17, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Feb 16, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini
Feb 16, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Feb 16, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini
Feb 13, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini and Arnab Das
Feb 11, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Antonio Carlos Lemgruber
Feb 11, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Barry Ritholtz
Feb 10, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Marek Belka
Feb 10, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Paolo Manasse
Feb 10, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Michael Arghyrou and John Tsoukalas
Feb 7, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini
Feb 6, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini
Feb 5, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini and Arnab Das
Feb 2, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Feb 2, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Feb 2, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 31, 2010
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
RGE Analyst Team
Jan 27, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Jan 25, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Jan 24, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Marek Belka
Jan 22, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 22, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Marek Belka
Jan 22, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 22, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 20, 2010
Emerging Markets Monitor
China Economist
Jan 20, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 20, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Marek Belka
Jan 19, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Models & Agents
Jan 19, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini
Jan 18, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 14, 2010
Emerging Markets Monitor
Walter Molano
Jan 14, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Paolo Manasse
Jan 14, 2010
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Arpitha Bykere
Jan 13, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 11, 2010
Emerging Markets Monitor
Michael Pettis
Jan 11, 2010
Global Macro EconoMonitor
John Daly
Jan 7, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
David Smith
Jan 5, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 5, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Jan 4, 2010
Europe EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Jan 3, 2010
Finance & Markets Monitor
Jennifer Kapila
Dec 30, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Claus Vistesen
Dec 28, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Dec 22, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Dec 16, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Dec 15, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Paolo Manasse
Dec 15, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Models & Agents
Dec 14, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Dec 13, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Dec 11, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba
Dec 9, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Dec 9, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Claus Vistesen
Dec 9, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Dec 9, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Jennifer Kapila and Arnab Das
Dec 8, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Mark Thoma
Dec 4, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Dec 3, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Nov 29, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Simon Johnson
Nov 29, 2009
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
RGE Analyst Team
Nov 25, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Aurelio Maccario
Nov 18, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Nov 17, 2009
Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor
Carlo Bastasin
Nov 16, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Nov 12, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Katharina Jungen
Nov 8, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Nov 4, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Oct 28, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Oct 28, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Sebastian Dullien
Oct 21, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic
Oct 21, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Aurelio Maccario
Oct 20, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Aurelio Maccario
Oct 16, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Michael Moran
Oct 9, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Oct 7, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Oct 7, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Salman Ahmed and Elisa Parisi-Capone
Oct 6, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Manuel Alvarez-Rivera
Sep 30, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Mark Thoma
Sep 23, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Aurelio Maccario
Sep 21, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Sep 16, 2009
Finance & Markets Monitor
Aurelio Maccario
Sep 16, 2009
US EconoMonitor
Edward Harrison
Sep 14, 2009
US EconoMonitor
Rebecca Wilder
Sep 14, 2009
Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini
Sep 8, 2009
Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor
Adam S. Posen
Sep 8, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Sep 3, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Chris Mooney
Sep 2, 2009
RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor
Elisa Parisi-Capone and Chris Mooney
Sep 2, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Paolo Manasse
Aug 25, 2009
Europe EconoMonitor
Edward Hugh
Aug 18, 2009
Global Macro EconoMonitor
Aurelio Maccario
Aug 11, 2009
Analysis
ECB
Mar 11, 2010
News
Bloomberg
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
FitchRatings (free registration)
Martin Hansen and Gordon Scott et al
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
Economist
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
Institute for Security and Development Policy
Mar 11, 2010
Blogs
DealBook
Mar 11, 2010
Blogs
Research Recap
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
Natixis
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
Natixis
Mar 11, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Roman Kessler
Mar 11, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
James Mawson and Toby Lewis
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
DBS
Mar 11, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Katharina Bart
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
Economist
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
EU Business
Mar 11, 2010
News
EU Business
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
Spiegel online
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
EU Observer
Mar 11, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Gillian Tett
Mar 10, 2010
Opinions
Business New Europe
Mike Collier
Feb 26, 2010
Analysis
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Interview with Nicolas Véron
Mar 3, 2010
Blogs
FT Alphaville
Joseph Cotterill
Mar 11, 2010
Analysis
VoxEU
Francesco Paolo Mongelli
Mar 11, 2010
Opinions
Eurointelligence
Paul De Grauwe
Mar 11, 2010
News
Financial Times
Luis Garicano
Mar 10, 2010
Blogs
Eurointelligence
Mar 11, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Wolfgang Schäuble
Mar 10, 2010
Research
IMF
Andrew Berg and Yanliang Miao
Mar 1, 2010
Analysis
Reuters
Dana Ford and Christoph Steitz
Mar 10, 2010
Blogs
Free exchange
Mar 10, 2010
News
The Gazette
Pete Harrison
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
Seeking Alpha
Mar 7, 2010
Analysis
CEPS Center for European Policy Studies
Daniel Gros
Mar 10, 2010
Research
FRIDE
Mar 10, 2010
Analysis
Council for European Studies
Mar 10, 2010
Opinions
Reuters BreakingViews
Mar 10, 2010
Blogs
The Market Oracle
Mar 10, 2010
Research
Natixis
Mar 10, 2010
Analysis
JP Morgan
Mar 10, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Alistair Barr
Mar 9, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Costas Paris
Mar 10, 2010
News
Irish Times
Mar 10, 2010
Opinions
EurActiv
Mar 10, 2010
Analysis
Wall Street Journal
Tom Mudd
Mar 10, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Mar 10, 2010
Analysis
The Economist
Mar 10, 2010
Opinions
Bloomberg Audio/Video Report
Charles Calomiris
Mar 10, 2010
News
Financial Times
Mar 10, 2010
Analysis
Spiegel online
Mar 10, 2010
News
Bloomberg
Mar 10, 2010
Analysis
Spiegel online
Mar 10, 2010
News
EU Observer
Mar 10, 2010
News
EU Observer
Mar 10, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Martin Wolf
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
Business New Europe
Gunter Deuber and Nicolaus Heinen
Feb 26, 2010
Analysis
Danske Markets Research
Mar 10, 2010
News
Financial Times
Mar 10, 2010
News
Bloomberg
Gabi Thesing and Jana Randow
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
New York Times
Paul Taylor
Mar 9, 2010
News
Bloomberg
Rainer Buergin and Ben Moshinsky
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
Spiegel
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
Centre for European Policy Studies
Paul De Grauwe
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
CEPS
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
CEPS
Mar 9, 2010
Blogs
Stefan Karlsson
Mar 9, 2010
News
EurActiv
Mar 9, 2010
Blogs
FT Alpahville
Joseph Cotterill
Mar 9, 2010
Blogs
FT Alphaville
Mar 9, 2010
Blogs
Research Recap
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
CIBC
Mar 9, 2010
Research
Natixis
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
Wall Street Journal
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
Wall Street Journal
Mar 9, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Patrick Mcgroarty and Carolyn Henson
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
Financial Times
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
Financial Times
Mar 9, 2010
News
Financial Times
Mar 9, 2010
Analysis
BusinessWeek
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Giancarlo Corsetti and Harold James
Mar 9, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Editorial
Mar 9, 2010
Blogs
EU Observer
Mar 9, 2010
News
EU Observer
Mar 9, 2010
Blogs
Eurointelligence
Mar 9, 2010
News
EU Observer
Andrew Willis
Mar 8, 2010
Blogs
Baseline Scenario
Simon Johnson
Mar 8, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Quentin Peel
Mar 8, 2010
News
Wall Street Journal
Bob Davis and Marcus Walker
Mar 8, 2010
Blogs
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Mar 5, 2010
Blogs
News N Economics
Rebecca Wilder
Mar 7, 2010
Blogs
Zero Hedge
Tyler Durden
Mar 8, 2010
Opinions
Financial Times
Mar 8, 2010
Opinions
Huffington Post
Janet Tavakoli
Mar 8, 2010
News
EurActiv
Mar 8, 2010
Blogs
DealBook
Mar 8, 2010