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Central Europe

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RGE's Q1 2010 Central Europe Outlook

EU newcomers in Central Europe—the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the so-called CE-4)—are on distinctive growth paths. The global crisis hit all four economies hard, depressing exports and prompting a dramatic downshift in capital inflows, but some proved more resilient than others. The region’s biggest economy, Poland, distinguished itself as the only CE-4 economy (and only EU economy) to avert recession in 2009. These economies may be recovering at different speeds, but RGE sees GDP growth stabilizing well below the soaring, pre-crisis growth rates of earlier this decade in each of them. All four economies look set to experience sluggish, albeit positive, growth in the medium-term. As for 2010, the CE-4 economies are expected to once again significantly underperform Emerging Asia and Latin America.

Read the Q1 2010 Central Europe Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Central Europe: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

Eastern Europe: Out of the Danger Zone?

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Oct 21, 2009

Eastern Europe: Will Democracy Stay the Only Game in Town?

Jelena Vukotic and Michael Bogdan Apr 30, 2009

Eastern European Tinderbox: How Explosive Could it Get?

Mary Stokes, Jelena Vukotic and Elisa Parisi-Capone Feb 28, 2009

What's the Matter With Hungary?

Mary Stokes Oct 27, 2008

Vulnerabilities in Central and Southern Europe

Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti Jun 06, 2006

What is the Risk of a Currency and Financial Crisis in Hungary?

Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti Jun 01, 2006

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Reigniting Growth in Emerging Europe

Marek Belka Feb 10, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Medicine for Europe’s Sinking South

Nouriel Roubini and Arnab Das Feb 2, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Getting Ready to Join the Eurozone Club

Marek Belka Feb 2, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Unemployment Rates: U.S. Versus the Rest of the World

Rebecca Wilder Jan 31, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hungary isn't another Greece........Now is it?

Edward Hugh Jan 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Unemployment in Europe: It's Not Just Spain

Rebecca Wilder Jan 3, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hungary's Economic Correction Still Fails to Convince

Edward Hugh Dec 29, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?

Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba Dec 9, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Moody’s: Iceland, Latvia and Hungary in “Fragile Stabilization”

Edward Harrison Sep 23, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

As Hungary's "Correction" Heads For A Dead End, Time For A Change Of Course?

Edward Hugh Sep 21, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Control High Inflation, Not Exchange Rates

Anders Aslund Sep 16, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Summer Vigour

Marcus Svedberg Sep 4, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Fitch says Hungarian bank sector likely to recover slowly after severe stress test

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  Mar 10, 2010

News

Hungary Q4 09 GDP suggests ongoing, but slow recovery

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 10, 2010

News

Czech renewable energy exceeds grid safety limit

Reuters  Jana Mlcochova Mar 10, 2010

News

KPMG: Czech producers in good position

Czech Business Weekly  Mar 10, 2010

News

Czech National Bank: February Inflation Below Forecast

Czech National Bank  Tomáš Holub Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: January Industrial Output rose 5.7% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Orsolya Nyeste Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Czech Republic: Risk Assessment

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Czech figures confirm fragile recovery story

KBC Banking & Insurance  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: GDP declined 4% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungarian Bank Sector Likely to Recover Slowly After Severe Stress Test

Fitch Ratings (subscription may be required)  Mar 10, 2010

News

Hungarian Lenders Face ‘Slow’ Recovery, Fitch Says

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz Mar 10, 2010

News

Czech Social Democrats Stay Highly Popular

Angus Reid Global Monitor  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: Industry rose 5.7% y/y in January

ERSTE Bank  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Czech inflation stubbornly low

Raiffeisen Research  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: January Industrial Output

ERSTE Bank  Mar 9, 2010

News

Czech February Inflation Unexpectedly Slowed on Fuel Prices

Bloomberg  Ladka Bauerova and Douglas Lytle Mar 9, 2010

News

Skrzypek Sees Polish Price Risk Easing on Zloty, Data

Bloomberg  Simone Meier and Dorota Bartyzel Mar 9, 2010

News

Czech Political Gridlock May Hit Rating, Moody’s Says

Bloomberg  Peter Laca Mar 9, 2010

News

Hungary Fidesz to form fact finding committee, promises 4-yr, 6-yr tax cuts

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Czech Monthly Forecast: March 2010

ERSTE Bank  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Hungary Monthly Economic Forecast: March 2010

ERSTE Bank  Mar 8, 2010

News

Czech Trade Beats Estimates on Renewed Demand Abroad

Bloomberg  Peter Laca and Krystof Chamonikolas Mar 8, 2010

News

Hungary’s Budget Gap Points to New IMF Goal, Intesa, 4Casts Say

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 8, 2010

News

Hungary revises 2009 trade surplus sharply downward

Portfolio.hu (free regisration may be required)  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Scrapping bonus expiration to hurt Czechs and Slovaks most

KBC Banking and Insurance  Jan Bures Mar 5, 2010

News

Polish labour ministry sees Feb jobless at 13.0 pct

Reuters  Dagmara Leszkowicz Mar 5, 2010

Research

wiiw Forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe, 2010-2012: Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead

Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies  Mar 5, 2010

News

Hungary budget deficit reaches 40% of full-year target by end Feb

Portfolio.hu (free regisration may be required)  Mar 5, 2010

News

Slovak GDP Fall Slowed in Fourth Quarter on Exports

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek Mar 5, 2010

News

EU Should Help Reveal ‘Truth’ on Hungary, Orban Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Zloty continues to outperform the region, supported by Hawkish MPC rhetoric

KBC Banking and Insurance  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Energy security in Europe: Central questions

Economist  Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia: 4Q09 GDP growth

ERSTE Bank  Mária Valachyová Mar 5, 2010

Blogs

Patriotic Fervor Takes Center Stage Ahead of Slovak Elections

Wall Street Journal  Leos Rousek Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia — Economy grows 2%QoQ in the fourth quarter

Citigroup Global Markets  Mar 5, 2010

News

Poland to Target Asia Investors With $1 Billion Bond

Bloomberg  David McQuaid and Piotr Skolimowski Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia Long-term Outlook

ERSTE Bank  Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

Poland economy: Quick View - The EU's growth champion

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 3, 2010

News

No official talks between IMF and Hungary's Fidesz - IMF Res.Rep.

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 3, 2010

News

Austrian Central Bank: Eastern European writedowns haven't peaked

Reuters  Boris Groendahl Mar 3, 2010

News

German yes to Polish objections to Nord Stream

Polish Market Online  Mar 3, 2010

News

Hungary's forint is the most attractive EM currency - Credit Suisse

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 3, 2010

Analysis

CEEMEA: Is Food Price Inflation Still a Potential Threat?

Morgan Stanley  Tevfik Aksoy Mar 2, 2010

News

Poland gets Nordstream pipeline shifted

Financial Times  Jan Cienski Mar 3, 2010

Analysis

Polish GDP stronger on solid restocking and exports

KBC Banking & Insurance  Mar 3, 2010

News

'New Europe' loses out in ECB currency swaps

EurActiv  Mar 3, 2010

News

Polish Rates Projection Plan May Hinder Decisions, Rzonca Says

Bloomberg  Dorota Bartyzel Mar 3, 2010

News

Czech Bond Demand Rises in Auction on Lower Issuance

Bloomberg  Krystof Chamonikolas Mar 3, 2010

News

Recovery stronger in central Europe

Financial Times  Jan Cienski Mar 2, 2010

News

Hungary Can Reduce Benchmark Rate to Record 5.5%, Csaki Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 2, 2010

Opinions

New EU state structural funds should not be 'spread too thin'

EU Observer  Valentina Pop Mar 2, 2010

Analysis

Adriatic Watch: a Must for the European Commission

Jamestown Foundation  Vladimir Socor Mar 2, 2010

News

Polish Economic Growth Accelerated in Fourth Quarter

Bloomberg  Dorota Bartyzel Mar 2, 2010

News

Poland May Bring Forward Rate Rises, Glapinski Says

Bloomberg  Dorota Bartyzel Mar 2, 2010

Opinions

Turning the Corner in Eastern Europe

Project Syndicate  Thomas Mirow Mar 1, 2010

News

Slovakia: Spring won't thaw jobless rate

Slovak Spectator  Beata Balogová Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia: Country Outlook

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 1, 2010

Blogs

Political Scientists See Fidesz Facing Hardships, Expect It to Pluck up Courage

Wall Street Journal - New Europe  Veronika Gulyas Mar 1, 2010

News

Hungary should start talks with IMF right after the elections - Fidesz chief economist

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Recession in Hungary might end after seven quarters

GKI Economic Research Co. & Erste Bank  Mar 1, 2010

News

Poland: Unemployment rises, sales fall short

Czech Business Weekly  Mar 1, 2010

News

Slovakia: Current account gap markedly lower in 2009

Czech Business Weekly  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Hungary economy: Fiscal consolidation--there may be trouble ahead

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Poland Macro Flash: PMI data supportive for PLN

Citigroup Global Markets  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Poland Macro Flash Downward Inflation Surprise Possible in February

Citigroup Global Markets  Mar 1, 2010

News

Eastern European Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates on Exports

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

CEE currencies weakened on rising tensions in Greece

KBC Banking & Insurance  Feb 26, 2010

News

IMF to go easy on Hungary's Fidesz about deficit target overshoot?

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

Poland: New inflation projection justifies low interest rates

Citigroup Global Markets  Piotr Kalisz Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: South Eastern Europe - the next trouble spot?

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen Feb 26, 2010

News

Polish Central Bank Raises 2010 GDP Forecast to 3.1%

Bloomberg  Dorota Bartyzel Feb 26, 2010

News

Nabucco Gas Link to Europe May Secure Turkmen Supply by April

Bloomberg  Ben Farey Feb 26, 2010

News

Hungarian Borrowing Costs May Decline, Borbely Says

Bloomberg  Edith Balazs Feb 26, 2010

Research

Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries

IMF  Alexander Hoffmaister, Jorge Roldos and Anita Tuladhar Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

Poland: MPC leaves rates unchanged, inflation risks balanced

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 25, 2010

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