Argentina

RGE's Q1 2010 Argentina Outlook

RGE has revised up its forecast for Argentina’s GDP growth to 3.8% y/y (3.5% y/y to 4.5% y/y range) from 2.6% y/y for 2010, reflecting upward revisions to our global and Brazil outlooks.  Improving domestic confidence and a strong recovery in the agricultural sector, as well as a low base and strong fiscal spending, should support growth this year. However, net exports will have a negative impact on growth as real imports (11% y/y) will likely bounce back faster than real exports (4.3% y/y). RGE anticipates private consumption and investment to increase 3.6% y/y and 7.4% y/y in 2010. Overall, RGE sees growth still falling short of levels seen during the boom period (2003 to 2008) when the economy expanded 8.5% y/y on average.

The economy started to ease the pace of contraction in Q3 2009. The government reported that domestic demand contracted less severely…

Read the Q1 2010 Argentina Outlook.